Bill Gross says don't expect double-digit returns anymore

He could very well be right. Part of returns come from inflation, which is currently running at an annual pace of 1.2 percent. If "normal" inflation is 3 percent, a 10 percent return in normal times is equivalent in real terms to 8 percent now. There is nothing necessarily wrong with that.

A modest step toward untangling housing markets

One of the impediments to housing transactions is appraisals. If appraisals (which are backward looking) don't support the offer price of a house, the financing for the house can disappear.

For low down payment deals, this is frustrating, but appropriate. But for deals involving a minimum of 20 percent down, it is hard to see how appraisers have a better sense of value than the potential buyer who is actually putting a lot of money at risk. It may make sense to allow buyers who put 20 percent down, and whose source of funds is well documented, to get a loan even if the appraisal comes in a little low.

At what point will short sales become meaningful to restarting the housing market?

The Washington Post today forecasts 400,000 short sales this year. Lawrence Yun says there will be 2.5 million foreclosures in 2010. So while short sales have have increased substantially, they will still be only about 1/6 the number of foreclosures.

Don't get too excited

Nick Timiraos retweets Brad Hunter: Census numbers: Single family starts up 4.3% (+/- 12.4%) Plus or minus 12.4%!! It's in the fine print of their release!

I actually try my best not too make too big a deal out of any monthly number.